The Crucial Role of Internal Variability in Modulating the Decadal Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon–ENSO Relationship during the Twentieth Century

Abstract

his study investigates the role of internal variability in modulating the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)?ENSO relationship using Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CR) data and simulations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). Analysis of 20CR data reveals an unstable EASM?ENSO relationship during the twentieth century. During the high-correlation periods of 1892?1912 and 1979?99, an evident western Pacific anticyclone (WPAC) and dipole sea level pressure (SLP) pattern are present in the decaying El Niño summer, accompanied by Indian Ocean warming and a tropospheric temperature Matsuno?Gill pattern. However, these are weaker or absent during low-correlation periods (1914?34 and 1958?78). After removing the external forcings based on historical simulations from 15 CMIP5 models, all the above features remain almost unchanged, suggesting the crucial role of internal variability. In a 501-yr preindustrial control (piControl) simulation without external forcing variation from CCSM4, the EASM?ENSO relationship also shows significant decadal variation, with a magnitude comparable to the 20CR data. The analysis demonstrates that the EASM?ENSO relationship?s variation is modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Compared to negative IPO phases, the warmer East China Sea in positive IPO phases weakens the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), inducing more precipitation. Thus, the Kelvin wave?induced interannual divergence suppresses more mean-state precipitation and leads to a stronger WPAC. Hence, the IPO modulates the EASM?ENSO relationship through the WNPSH, which is evident in both 20CR and the piControl simulation.