Winter Extreme Flux Events in the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream Extension Regions and Relationship with Modes of North Pacific and Atlantic Variability

Abstract

oreal winter (November?March) extreme flux events in the Kuroshio Extension region (KER) of the northwestern Pacific and the Gulf Stream region (GSR) of the northwestern Atlantic are analyzed and compared, based on NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), NCEP?NCAR reanalysis, and NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis data, as well as the observationally derived OAFlux dataset. These extreme flux events, most of which last less than 3 days, are characterized by cold air outbreaks (CAOs) with an anomalous northerly wind that brings cold and dry air from the Eurasian and North American continents to the KER and GSR, respectively. A close relationship between the extreme flux events over KER (GSR) and the Aleutian low pattern (ALP) [east Atlantic pattern (EAP)] is found with more frequent occurrence of the extreme flux events during a positive ALP (EAP) phase and vice versa. A further lag-composite analysis suggests that the ALP (EAP) is associated with accumulated effects of the synoptic winter storms accompanied by the extreme flux events and shows that the event-day storms tend to have a preferred southeastward propagation path over the North Pacific (Atlantic), potentially contributing to the southward shift of the storm track over the eastern North Pacific (Atlantic) basin during the ALP (EAP) positive phase. Finally, lag-regression analyses indicate a potential positive influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the KER (GSR) on the development of the extreme flux events in the North Pacific (Atlantic).