The Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Influence on Spring Rainy Season Precipitation over Equatorial West Africa

Abstract

his paper characterizes the influence of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) on spring rainy season (March?June) convection variability over equatorial West Africa (EWA) and investigates mechanisms of association. It is found that the MJO has a significant impact on convection and precipitation anomalies over the region. Over large portions of EWA, MJO impacts on rainfall constitute a difference on the order of 20%?50% from average daily rain rates for the season. This impact is primarily due to the direct influence of the eastward movement of the MJO convective core into EWA, which is associated with westerly low-level wind anomalies that advect moisture from the Atlantic Ocean to the region. In addition, equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves triggered by MJO convection anomalies over the Indian Ocean have a significant and systematic influence on EWA spring rainy season precipitation. The Kelvin wave contribution and the relative strength of the direct MJO convective influence compared to that of equatorial wave activity differs from findings of studies that have examined MJO influence on EWA during boreal summer. In addition, MJO is found to influence precipitation extremes during spring rains in a manner that is not observed in summer. Importantly, in this analysis the influences of MJO convection and each of the MJO-associated convectively coupled equatorial waves frequently coincide, reaching EWA approximately 20 days after MJO convection initiates in the Indian Ocean. This coincident timing enhances the total MJO impact on the region, and it also implies that MJO events have potential for prediction of regional-scale convection and rainfall anomalies over EWA in this season.