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    Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 028 ):;issue: 002::page 838
    Author:
    Little, Christopher M.
    ,
    Horton, Radley M.
    ,
    Kopp, Robert E.
    ,
    Oppenheimer, Michael
    ,
    Yip, Stan
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere?ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.
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      Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

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    contributor authorLittle, Christopher M.
    contributor authorHorton, Radley M.
    contributor authorKopp, Robert E.
    contributor authorOppenheimer, Michael
    contributor authorYip, Stan
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:10:56Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:10:56Z
    date copyright2015/01/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-80691.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4223610
    description abstracthe representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere?ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleUncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume28
    journal issue2
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1
    journal fristpage838
    journal lastpage852
    treeJournal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 028 ):;issue: 002
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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