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    Improving the Prediction of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Using the Interannual Increment Approach

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 021::page 8126
    Author:
    Huang, Yanyan
    ,
    Wang, Huijun
    ,
    Fan, Ke
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00209.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he summer Asian?Pacific oscillation (APO) is a dominant teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere that links the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Asian?North Pacific Ocean sector. In this study, the direct Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) model outputs from 1960 to 2001, which are limited in predicting the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations, are applied using the interannual increment approach to improve the predictions of the summer APO. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, the interannual increment scheme is shown to significantly improve the predictive ability for the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations. The improvements for the interannual and interdecadal summer APO variability predictions in the interannual increment scheme relative to the original scheme are clear and significant. Compared with the DEMETER direct outputs, the statistical model with two predictors of APO and sea surface temperature anomaly over the Atlantic shows a significantly improved ability to predict the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (SRYR). This study therefore describes a more efficient approach for predicting the APO and the SRYR.
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      Improving the Prediction of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Using the Interannual Increment Approach

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4223420
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    contributor authorHuang, Yanyan
    contributor authorWang, Huijun
    contributor authorFan, Ke
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:10:19Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:10:19Z
    date copyright2014/11/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-80519.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4223420
    description abstracthe summer Asian?Pacific oscillation (APO) is a dominant teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere that links the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Asian?North Pacific Ocean sector. In this study, the direct Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) model outputs from 1960 to 2001, which are limited in predicting the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations, are applied using the interannual increment approach to improve the predictions of the summer APO. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, the interannual increment scheme is shown to significantly improve the predictive ability for the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations. The improvements for the interannual and interdecadal summer APO variability predictions in the interannual increment scheme relative to the original scheme are clear and significant. Compared with the DEMETER direct outputs, the statistical model with two predictors of APO and sea surface temperature anomaly over the Atlantic shows a significantly improved ability to predict the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (SRYR). This study therefore describes a more efficient approach for predicting the APO and the SRYR.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleImproving the Prediction of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Using the Interannual Increment Approach
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume27
    journal issue21
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00209.1
    journal fristpage8126
    journal lastpage8134
    treeJournal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 021
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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