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    Impact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 024::page 9253
    Author:
    Materia, Stefano
    ,
    Borrelli, Andrea
    ,
    Bellucci, Alessio
    ,
    Alessandri, Andrea
    ,
    Di Pietro, Pierluigi
    ,
    Athanasiadis, Panagiotis
    ,
    Navarra, Antonio
    ,
    Gualdi, Silvio
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00163.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a hierarchy of seasonal forecast experiments performed under different initialization strategies. A realistic atmospheric initial state allows an improved equilibrium between the ocean and overlying atmosphere, increasing the model predictive skill in the ocean. In fact, in regions characterized by strong air?sea coupling, the atmosphere initial condition affects forecast skill for several months. In particular, the ENSO region, eastern tropical Atlantic, and North Pacific benefit significantly from the atmosphere initialization. On the mainland, the effect of atmospheric initial conditions is detected in the early phase of the forecast, while the quality of land surface initialization affects forecast skill in the following seasons. Winter forecasts in the high-latitude plains benefit from the snow initialization, while the impact of soil moisture initial state is particularly effective in the Mediterranean region and central Asia.However, the initialization strategy based on the full value technique may not be the best choice for land surface, since soil moisture is a strongly model-dependent variable: in fact, initialization through land surface reanalysis does not systematically guarantee a skill improvement. Nonetheless, using a different initialization strategy for land, as opposed to atmosphere and ocean, may generate inconsistencies. Overall, the introduction of a realistic initialization for land and atmosphere substantially increases skill and accuracy. However, further developments in the procedure for land surface initialization are required for more accurate seasonal forecasts.
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      Impact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4223392
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    • Journal of Climate

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    contributor authorMateria, Stefano
    contributor authorBorrelli, Andrea
    contributor authorBellucci, Alessio
    contributor authorAlessandri, Andrea
    contributor authorDi Pietro, Pierluigi
    contributor authorAthanasiadis, Panagiotis
    contributor authorNavarra, Antonio
    contributor authorGualdi, Silvio
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:10:13Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:10:13Z
    date copyright2014/12/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-80494.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4223392
    description abstracthe impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a hierarchy of seasonal forecast experiments performed under different initialization strategies. A realistic atmospheric initial state allows an improved equilibrium between the ocean and overlying atmosphere, increasing the model predictive skill in the ocean. In fact, in regions characterized by strong air?sea coupling, the atmosphere initial condition affects forecast skill for several months. In particular, the ENSO region, eastern tropical Atlantic, and North Pacific benefit significantly from the atmosphere initialization. On the mainland, the effect of atmospheric initial conditions is detected in the early phase of the forecast, while the quality of land surface initialization affects forecast skill in the following seasons. Winter forecasts in the high-latitude plains benefit from the snow initialization, while the impact of soil moisture initial state is particularly effective in the Mediterranean region and central Asia.However, the initialization strategy based on the full value technique may not be the best choice for land surface, since soil moisture is a strongly model-dependent variable: in fact, initialization through land surface reanalysis does not systematically guarantee a skill improvement. Nonetheless, using a different initialization strategy for land, as opposed to atmosphere and ocean, may generate inconsistencies. Overall, the introduction of a realistic initialization for land and atmosphere substantially increases skill and accuracy. However, further developments in the procedure for land surface initialization are required for more accurate seasonal forecasts.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleImpact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume27
    journal issue24
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00163.1
    journal fristpage9253
    journal lastpage9271
    treeJournal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 024
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian