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    Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using Optimized Combinations of ENSO Regions: Application to the Coral Sea Basin

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 022::page 8527
    Author:
    Ramsay, Hamish A.
    ,
    Richman, Michael B.
    ,
    Leslie, Lance M.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00017.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: his study examines combining ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) regions for seasonal prediction of Coral Sea tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. The Coral Sea averages ~4 TCs per season, but is characterized by strong interannual variability, with 1?9 TCs per season, over the period 1977?2012. A wavelet analysis confirms that ENSO is a key contributor to Coral Sea TC count (TCC) variability. Motivated by the impact of El Niño Modoki on regional climate anomalies, a suite of 38 linear models is constructed and assessed on its ability to predict Coral Sea seasonal TCC. Seasonal predictions of TCC are generated by a leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV). An important finding is that models made up of multiple tropical Pacific SST regions, such as those that comprise the El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) or the Trans-Niño Index (TNI), perform considerably better than models comprising only single regions, such as Niño-3.4 or Niño-4. Moreover, enhanced (suppressed) TC activity is expected in the Coral Sea when the central Pacific is anomalously cool (warm) and the eastern and western Pacific are anomalously warm (cool) during austral winter. The best cross-validated model has persistent and statistically significantly high correlations with TCC (r > 0.5) at lead times of ~6 months prior to the mean onset of the Coral Sea TC season, whereas correlations based heavily on the widely used Niño-3.4 region are not statistically significant or meaningful (r = 0.09) for the same lead times. Of the 38 models assessed, several optimized forms of the EMI and of the TNI perform best.
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      Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using Optimized Combinations of ENSO Regions: Application to the Coral Sea Basin

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4223294
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    contributor authorRamsay, Hamish A.
    contributor authorRichman, Michael B.
    contributor authorLeslie, Lance M.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:09:53Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:09:53Z
    date copyright2014/11/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-80405.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4223294
    description abstracthis study examines combining ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) regions for seasonal prediction of Coral Sea tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. The Coral Sea averages ~4 TCs per season, but is characterized by strong interannual variability, with 1?9 TCs per season, over the period 1977?2012. A wavelet analysis confirms that ENSO is a key contributor to Coral Sea TC count (TCC) variability. Motivated by the impact of El Niño Modoki on regional climate anomalies, a suite of 38 linear models is constructed and assessed on its ability to predict Coral Sea seasonal TCC. Seasonal predictions of TCC are generated by a leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV). An important finding is that models made up of multiple tropical Pacific SST regions, such as those that comprise the El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) or the Trans-Niño Index (TNI), perform considerably better than models comprising only single regions, such as Niño-3.4 or Niño-4. Moreover, enhanced (suppressed) TC activity is expected in the Coral Sea when the central Pacific is anomalously cool (warm) and the eastern and western Pacific are anomalously warm (cool) during austral winter. The best cross-validated model has persistent and statistically significantly high correlations with TCC (r > 0.5) at lead times of ~6 months prior to the mean onset of the Coral Sea TC season, whereas correlations based heavily on the widely used Niño-3.4 region are not statistically significant or meaningful (r = 0.09) for the same lead times. Of the 38 models assessed, several optimized forms of the EMI and of the TNI perform best.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleSeasonal Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using Optimized Combinations of ENSO Regions: Application to the Coral Sea Basin
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume27
    journal issue22
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00017.1
    journal fristpage8527
    journal lastpage8542
    treeJournal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 022
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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