The Seasonality of Convective Events in the Labrador Sea

Abstract

odeling deep convection is a key challenge for climate science. Here two simulations of the Labrador Sea circulation obtained with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) run at a horizontal resolution of 7.5 km are used to characterize the response of convection to atmospheric forcing and its seasonal variability over the period 1980?2009. The integrations compare well with the sparse observations available. The modeled convection varies in three key aspects over the 30 years considered. First, its magnitude changes greatly at decadal scales. This aspect is supported by the in situ observations. Second, the initiation and peak of convection (i.e., initiation and maximum) shift by 2?3 weeks between strong and weak convective years. Third, the duration of convection varies by approximately one month between strong and weak years. The last two changes are associated with the variability of the time-integrated surface heat fluxes over the Labrador Sea during winter and spring, while the first results from changes in both atmospheric heat fluxes and oceanic conditions through the lateral inflow of warm Irminger Water from the boundary current system to the basin interior. Changes in surface heat fluxes over the convective region are linked to large-scale modes of variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. Implications for modeling the climate variability of the Labrador basin are discussed.