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    African Climate Change Uncertainty in Perturbed Physics Ensembles: Implications of Global Warming to 4°C and Beyond

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 012::page 4677
    Author:
    James, Rachel
    ,
    Washington, Richard
    ,
    Rowell, David P.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00612.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he importance of investigating regional climate changes associated with degrees of global warming is increasingly being recognized, but the majority of relevant research has been based on multimodel ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This has left two important questions unanswered: Are there plausible futures which are not represented by the models in CMIP? And, how would regional climates evolve under enhanced global warming, beyond 4°C? In this paper, two perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) are used to address these issues with reference to African precipitation. Examination of model versions that generate warming greater than 4°C in the twenty-first century shows that changes in African precipitation are enhanced gradually, even to high global temperatures; however, there may be nonlinearities that are not incorporated here due to limited model complexity. The range of projections from the PPEs is compared to data from phases 3 and 5 of CMIP (CMIP3 and CMIP5), revealing regional differences. This is partly the result of implausible model versions, but the PPE dataset can be justifiably constrained given its size and systematic nature, highlighting an additional advantage over MMEs. After applying constraints, the PPEs still show changes that are outside the range of CMIP, most prominently strong dry signals in west equatorial Africa and the Sahel, implying that MMEs may underestimate risks for these regions. Analysis of African precipitation changes therefore demonstrates that regional assessments that rely on CMIP3 and CMIP5 may overlook uncertainties associated with model parameterizations and pronounced warming. More systematic approaches are needed for conservative estimates of danger.
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      African Climate Change Uncertainty in Perturbed Physics Ensembles: Implications of Global Warming to 4°C and Beyond

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4223171
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    contributor authorJames, Rachel
    contributor authorWashington, Richard
    contributor authorRowell, David P.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:09:30Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:09:30Z
    date copyright2014/06/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-80295.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4223171
    description abstracthe importance of investigating regional climate changes associated with degrees of global warming is increasingly being recognized, but the majority of relevant research has been based on multimodel ensembles (MMEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This has left two important questions unanswered: Are there plausible futures which are not represented by the models in CMIP? And, how would regional climates evolve under enhanced global warming, beyond 4°C? In this paper, two perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) are used to address these issues with reference to African precipitation. Examination of model versions that generate warming greater than 4°C in the twenty-first century shows that changes in African precipitation are enhanced gradually, even to high global temperatures; however, there may be nonlinearities that are not incorporated here due to limited model complexity. The range of projections from the PPEs is compared to data from phases 3 and 5 of CMIP (CMIP3 and CMIP5), revealing regional differences. This is partly the result of implausible model versions, but the PPE dataset can be justifiably constrained given its size and systematic nature, highlighting an additional advantage over MMEs. After applying constraints, the PPEs still show changes that are outside the range of CMIP, most prominently strong dry signals in west equatorial Africa and the Sahel, implying that MMEs may underestimate risks for these regions. Analysis of African precipitation changes therefore demonstrates that regional assessments that rely on CMIP3 and CMIP5 may overlook uncertainties associated with model parameterizations and pronounced warming. More systematic approaches are needed for conservative estimates of danger.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAfrican Climate Change Uncertainty in Perturbed Physics Ensembles: Implications of Global Warming to 4°C and Beyond
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume27
    journal issue12
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00612.1
    journal fristpage4677
    journal lastpage4692
    treeJournal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 012
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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