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    Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part I: A Novel Evaluation and Climatology of Convective Parameters from Two Climate Models for the Late Twentieth Century

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 010::page 3827
    Author:
    Allen, John T.
    ,
    Karoly, David J.
    ,
    Walsh, Kevin J.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00425.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based on methods used in the development of a climatology of observed severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, two climate models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6) and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM)] have been used to produce simulated climatologies of ingredients and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms for the late twentieth century (1980?2000). A novel evaluation of these model climatologies against data from both the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and reports of severe thunderstorms from observers is used to analyze the capability of the models to represent convective environments in the current climate. This evaluation examines the representation of thunderstorm-favorable environments in terms of their frequency, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution, while presenting a framework for future evaluations of climate model convective parameters. Both models showed the capability to explain at least 75% of the spatial variance in both vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). CSIRO Mk3.6 struggled to either represent the diurnal cycle over a large portion of the continent or resolve the annual cycle, while in contrast CCAM showed a tendency to underestimate CAPE and 0?6-km bulk magnitude vertical wind shear (S06). While spatial resolution likely contributes to rendering of features such as coastal moisture and significant topography, the distribution of severe thunderstorm environments is found to have greater sensitivity to model biases. This highlights the need for a consistent approach to evaluating convective parameters and severe thunderstorm environments in present-day climate: an example of which is presented here.
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      Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part I: A Novel Evaluation and Climatology of Convective Parameters from Two Climate Models for the Late Twentieth Century

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4223037
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    • Journal of Climate

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    contributor authorAllen, John T.
    contributor authorKaroly, David J.
    contributor authorWalsh, Kevin J.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:09:02Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:09:02Z
    date copyright2014/05/01
    date issued2014
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-80174.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4223037
    description abstracthe influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based on methods used in the development of a climatology of observed severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, two climate models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6) and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM)] have been used to produce simulated climatologies of ingredients and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms for the late twentieth century (1980?2000). A novel evaluation of these model climatologies against data from both the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and reports of severe thunderstorms from observers is used to analyze the capability of the models to represent convective environments in the current climate. This evaluation examines the representation of thunderstorm-favorable environments in terms of their frequency, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution, while presenting a framework for future evaluations of climate model convective parameters. Both models showed the capability to explain at least 75% of the spatial variance in both vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). CSIRO Mk3.6 struggled to either represent the diurnal cycle over a large portion of the continent or resolve the annual cycle, while in contrast CCAM showed a tendency to underestimate CAPE and 0?6-km bulk magnitude vertical wind shear (S06). While spatial resolution likely contributes to rendering of features such as coastal moisture and significant topography, the distribution of severe thunderstorm environments is found to have greater sensitivity to model biases. This highlights the need for a consistent approach to evaluating convective parameters and severe thunderstorm environments in present-day climate: an example of which is presented here.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleFuture Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part I: A Novel Evaluation and Climatology of Convective Parameters from Two Climate Models for the Late Twentieth Century
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume27
    journal issue10
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00425.1
    journal fristpage3827
    journal lastpage3847
    treeJournal of Climate:;2014:;volume( 027 ):;issue: 010
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian