Dynamic and Thermodynamic Predictors of Vertical Structure in Radar-Observed Regional Precipitation

Abstract

adar-observed vertical structure of precipitation as defined by contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) is related to dynamic and thermodynamic environmental parameters. CFADs from 559 storms occurring over the years 2004?11 in the vicinity of Locarno, Switzerland, combined with Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data show that the radar-observed vertical structure of precipitation correlates with synoptic pattern (as defined by 1000- and 500-hPa geopotential heights), integrated water vapor flux, atmospheric stability, and vertical profiles of temperature, moisture, and wind. Following the analysis of vertical structure and environmental parameters, a generalized linear model (GLM) is developed for radar-observed vertical structure as a function of data from ERA-Interim. The GLM provides expected values for the vertical extent and magnitude of radar reflectivity and predicts storm vertical structure type with 79% overall accuracy. The relationships found between environmental parameters and storm vertical structure underscore the importance of including both dynamic and thermodynamic variables when evaluating climate change effects on precipitation. In addition, the ability of the GLM to reproduce storm types shows the potential for using GLMs as a link between lower-resolution global model data and high-resolution precipitation observations.