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    Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snowfall

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2013:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 020::page 7813
    Author:
    Krasting, John P.
    ,
    Broccoli, Anthony J.
    ,
    Dixon, Keith W.
    ,
    Lanzante, John R.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00832.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: sing simulations performed with 18 coupled atmosphere?ocean global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), projections of the Northern Hemisphere snowfall under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) scenario are analyzed for the period 2006?2100. These models perform well in simulating twentieth-century snowfall, although there is a positive bias in many regions. Annual snowfall is projected to decrease across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the twenty-first century, with increases projected at higher latitudes. On a seasonal basis, the transition zone between negative and positive snowfall trends corresponds approximately to the ?10°C isotherm of the late twentieth-century mean surface air temperature, such that positive trends prevail in winter over large regions of Eurasia and North America. Redistributions of snowfall throughout the entire snow season are projected to occur?even in locations where there is little change in annual snowfall. Changes in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow contribute to decreases in snowfall across most Northern Hemisphere regions, while changes in total precipitation typically contribute to increases in snowfall. A signal-to-noise analysis reveals that the projected changes in snowfall, based on the RCP4.5 scenario, are likely to become apparent during the twenty-first century for most locations in the Northern Hemisphere. The snowfall signal emerges more slowly than the temperature signal, suggesting that changes in snowfall are not likely to be early indicators of regional climate change.
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      Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snowfall

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    contributor authorKrasting, John P.
    contributor authorBroccoli, Anthony J.
    contributor authorDixon, Keith W.
    contributor authorLanzante, John R.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:08:01Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:08:01Z
    date copyright2013/10/01
    date issued2013
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-79891.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4222720
    description abstractsing simulations performed with 18 coupled atmosphere?ocean global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), projections of the Northern Hemisphere snowfall under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) scenario are analyzed for the period 2006?2100. These models perform well in simulating twentieth-century snowfall, although there is a positive bias in many regions. Annual snowfall is projected to decrease across much of the Northern Hemisphere during the twenty-first century, with increases projected at higher latitudes. On a seasonal basis, the transition zone between negative and positive snowfall trends corresponds approximately to the ?10°C isotherm of the late twentieth-century mean surface air temperature, such that positive trends prevail in winter over large regions of Eurasia and North America. Redistributions of snowfall throughout the entire snow season are projected to occur?even in locations where there is little change in annual snowfall. Changes in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow contribute to decreases in snowfall across most Northern Hemisphere regions, while changes in total precipitation typically contribute to increases in snowfall. A signal-to-noise analysis reveals that the projected changes in snowfall, based on the RCP4.5 scenario, are likely to become apparent during the twenty-first century for most locations in the Northern Hemisphere. The snowfall signal emerges more slowly than the temperature signal, suggesting that changes in snowfall are not likely to be early indicators of regional climate change.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleFuture Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snowfall
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume26
    journal issue20
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00832.1
    journal fristpage7813
    journal lastpage7828
    treeJournal of Climate:;2013:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 020
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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