Comparing Cyclone Life Cycle Characteristics and Their Interannual Variability in Different Reanalyses

Abstract

haracteristics of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity were compared for five concurrent reanalyses: the NCEP?U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (herein NCEP?DOE), the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25), the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR), for the period 1979?2010 using a single cyclone tracking algorithm. The total number of cyclones, ranging from 1400 to more than 1800 yr?1, was found to depend strongly on the spatial resolution of the respective reanalysis. The largest cyclone population was identified using NASA-MERRA data, which also showed the highest occurrence of very deep cyclones. Of the reanalyses, two (NCEP?DOE and ERA-Interim) are associated with statistically significant positive trends in the total number of cyclones from 1% to 2% decade?1. These trends result from moderate and shallow cyclones contributing to approximately 90% of the total cyclone count on average. The number of very deep cyclones (<960 hPa) in the North Atlantic increased in most reanalyses until 1990 and then declined during the last decade. In the North Pacific, the number of these events reached a peak in 2000 and then decreased during the last decade. The winter pattern is characterized by robust trends in cyclone numbers, with an enhancement of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the North Pacific subtropical storm track. In the summer, there is a robust intensification of the Mediterranean storm track and a decrease in counts over the North Atlantic. Interannual variability and decadal-scale variations of the cyclone counts are highly correlated among the reanalyses, with the greatest agreement in moderate and deep cyclones.