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    Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2013:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 013::page 4447
    Author:
    Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen
    ,
    Randerson, James T.
    ,
    Lindsay, Keith
    ,
    Stephens, Britton B.
    ,
    Keith Moore, J.
    ,
    Doney, Scott C.
    ,
    Thornton, Peter E.
    ,
    Mahowald, Natalie M.
    ,
    Hoffman, Forrest M.
    ,
    Sweeney, Colm
    ,
    Tans, Pieter P.
    ,
    Wennberg, Paul O.
    ,
    Wofsy, Steven C.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00589.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: hanges in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model?Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north?south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north?south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east?west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2?10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.
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      Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4222558
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    contributor authorKeppel-Aleks, Gretchen
    contributor authorRanderson, James T.
    contributor authorLindsay, Keith
    contributor authorStephens, Britton B.
    contributor authorKeith Moore, J.
    contributor authorDoney, Scott C.
    contributor authorThornton, Peter E.
    contributor authorMahowald, Natalie M.
    contributor authorHoffman, Forrest M.
    contributor authorSweeney, Colm
    contributor authorTans, Pieter P.
    contributor authorWennberg, Paul O.
    contributor authorWofsy, Steven C.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:07:28Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:07:28Z
    date copyright2013/07/01
    date issued2013
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-79744.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4222558
    description abstracthanges in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model?Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north?south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north?south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east?west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2?10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume26
    journal issue13
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00589.1
    journal fristpage4447
    journal lastpage4475
    treeJournal of Climate:;2013:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 013
    contenttypeFulltext
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