On the Bias in Simulated ENSO SSTA Meridional Widths of CMIP3 Models

Abstract

he fidelity of coupled climate models simulating El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns has been widely examined. Nevertheless, a systematical narrow bias in the simulated meridional width of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of ENSO has been largely overlooked. Utilizing the preindustrial control simulations of 11 coupled climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it was shown that the simulated width of the ENSO SSTA is only about two-thirds of what is observed. Through a heat budget analysis based on simulations and ocean reanalysis datasets, it is demonstrated that the SSTA outside of the equatorial strip is predominantly controlled by the anomalous meridional advection by climatological currents and heat-flux damping. The authors thus propose a simple damped-advective conceptual model to describe ENSO width. The simple model indicates that this width is primarily determined by three factors: meridional current, ENSO period, and thermal damping rate. When the meridional current is weak, it spreads the equatorial SSTA away from the equator less effectively and the ENSO width thus tends to be narrow. A short ENSO period allows less time to transport the equatorial SSTA toward the off-equatorial region, and strong damping prevents expansion of the SSTA away from the equator, both of which lead to the meridional width becoming narrow. The narrow bias of the simulated ENSO width is mainly due to a systematical bias in weak trade winds that lead to weak ocean meridional currents, and partly due to a bias toward short ENSO periods.