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    CMIP3 Subtropical Stratocumulus Cloud Feedback Interpreted through a Mixed-Layer Model

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2012:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 005::page 1607
    Author:
    Caldwell, Peter M.
    ,
    Zhang, Yunyan
    ,
    Klein, Stephen A.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00188.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: arge-scale conditions over subtropical marine stratocumulus areas are extracted from global climate models (GCMs) participating in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and used to drive an atmospheric mixed-layer model (MLM) for current and future climate scenarios. Cloud fraction is computed as the fraction of days where GCM forcings produce a cloudy equilibrium MLM state. This model is a good predictor of cloud fraction and its temporal variations on time scales longer than 1 week but overpredicts liquid water path and entrainment.GCM cloud fraction compares poorly with observations of mean state, variability, and correlation with estimated inversion strength (EIS). MLM cloud fraction driven by these same GCMs, however, agrees well with observations, suggesting that poor GCM low cloud fraction is due to deficiencies in cloud parameterizations rather than large-scale conditions. However, replacing the various GCM cloud parameterizations with a single physics package (the MLM) does not reduce intermodel spread in low-cloud feedback because the MLM is more sensitive than the GCMs to existent intermodel variations in large-scale forcing. This suggests that improving GCM low cloud physics will not by itself reduce intermodel spread in predicted stratocumulus cloud feedback.Differences in EIS and EIS change between GCMs are found to be a good predictor of current-climate MLM cloud amount and future cloud change. CMIP3 GCMs predict a robust increase of 0.5?1 K in EIS over the next century, resulting in a 2.3%?4.5% increase in MLM cloudiness. If EIS increases are real, subtropical stratocumulus may damp global warming in a way not captured by the GCMs studied.
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      CMIP3 Subtropical Stratocumulus Cloud Feedback Interpreted through a Mixed-Layer Model

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    contributor authorCaldwell, Peter M.
    contributor authorZhang, Yunyan
    contributor authorKlein, Stephen A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:06:20Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:06:20Z
    date copyright2013/03/01
    date issued2012
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-79463.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4222246
    description abstractarge-scale conditions over subtropical marine stratocumulus areas are extracted from global climate models (GCMs) participating in phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and used to drive an atmospheric mixed-layer model (MLM) for current and future climate scenarios. Cloud fraction is computed as the fraction of days where GCM forcings produce a cloudy equilibrium MLM state. This model is a good predictor of cloud fraction and its temporal variations on time scales longer than 1 week but overpredicts liquid water path and entrainment.GCM cloud fraction compares poorly with observations of mean state, variability, and correlation with estimated inversion strength (EIS). MLM cloud fraction driven by these same GCMs, however, agrees well with observations, suggesting that poor GCM low cloud fraction is due to deficiencies in cloud parameterizations rather than large-scale conditions. However, replacing the various GCM cloud parameterizations with a single physics package (the MLM) does not reduce intermodel spread in low-cloud feedback because the MLM is more sensitive than the GCMs to existent intermodel variations in large-scale forcing. This suggests that improving GCM low cloud physics will not by itself reduce intermodel spread in predicted stratocumulus cloud feedback.Differences in EIS and EIS change between GCMs are found to be a good predictor of current-climate MLM cloud amount and future cloud change. CMIP3 GCMs predict a robust increase of 0.5?1 K in EIS over the next century, resulting in a 2.3%?4.5% increase in MLM cloudiness. If EIS increases are real, subtropical stratocumulus may damp global warming in a way not captured by the GCMs studied.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleCMIP3 Subtropical Stratocumulus Cloud Feedback Interpreted through a Mixed-Layer Model
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume26
    journal issue5
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00188.1
    journal fristpage1607
    journal lastpage1625
    treeJournal of Climate:;2012:;volume( 026 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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