Ocean Heat Transport and Its Projected Change in CanESM2

Abstract

he meridional ocean heat transport (MOHT), its seasonal variability, and projected changes simulated by the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) are presented. The global mean MOHT is within the uncertainty of the observational estimates. However, a correct simulation of the MOHT for individual ocean basins is more challenging, and the Atlantic MOHT south of 30°N is underestimated. The partitioning of the MOHT into the overturning and gyre components is generally consistent with such partitioning in an observationally optimized ocean model. At low latitudes, the time-mean MOHT is dominated by its overturning component, whereas in the Southern Ocean and, especially, in the subpolar North Atlantic, it is the gyre component that plays a more important role. In the projected warmer climates, CanESM2 simulates a weakening of the poleward MOHT essentially in both hemispheres. The projected MOHT changes are largely determined by the overturning component, except in the subpolar Atlantic where it is dominated by the gyre component. Consistent with (the limited number of) previous studies, the seasonal variability of the MOHT is large and is mostly driven by the seasonal variability of the meridional Ekman transport. In the simulated warmer climates, the seasonal cycle of the MOHT is projected to change, mostly in the tropics and also in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The eddy contribution to the MOHT is broadly consistent with that in the observationally optimized eddy-permitting model. However, in the tropics a significant fraction of the eddy energy is converted back to the mean circulation, and the heat transports due to the parameterized and permitted eddies differ.