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    Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Extreme Events over Northern and Tropical Africa

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2012:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 017::page 5748
    Author:
    Vizy, Edward K.
    ,
    Cook, Kerry H.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00693.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: hanges in rainfall and temperature extremes are predicted by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. A regional climate model is used to predict changes in extremes across tropical and northern Africa for 2041?60 under a midline emissions forcing scenario. Six indicators are examined, including annual extreme and daily diurnal temperature ranges, heat wave days, number of dry days, number of extreme wet days, and extreme wet day rainfall intensity. Confidence in the projections is evaluated by examining the ensemble spread and the validation of extreme events in the twentieth-century simulation.Despite an increase in both daily minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature ranges decrease from West Africa to Ethiopia during spring and fall, over the Sahel during summer, and over the Congo basin during winter and spring. Diurnal temperature ranges increase over the Horn of Africa during boreal winter and over Kenya and Tanzania during boreal summer. The number of heat wave days increases north of 8°N with the largest increase (60?120 days) over the western Sahel. The number of dry days decreases over the Congo and the central Sahel but increases over East Africa, the latter associated with a reduction in the springtime long rains. The number of extreme wet rainfall days is projected to increase over West Africa, the Sahel, and the Ethiopian Highlands but decrease over the Congo. The predicted changes in extreme wet rainfall intensity are highly regional.
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      Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Extreme Events over Northern and Tropical Africa

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    contributor authorVizy, Edward K.
    contributor authorCook, Kerry H.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:05:44Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:05:44Z
    date copyright2012/09/01
    date issued2012
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-79302.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4222068
    description abstracthanges in rainfall and temperature extremes are predicted by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. A regional climate model is used to predict changes in extremes across tropical and northern Africa for 2041?60 under a midline emissions forcing scenario. Six indicators are examined, including annual extreme and daily diurnal temperature ranges, heat wave days, number of dry days, number of extreme wet days, and extreme wet day rainfall intensity. Confidence in the projections is evaluated by examining the ensemble spread and the validation of extreme events in the twentieth-century simulation.Despite an increase in both daily minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature ranges decrease from West Africa to Ethiopia during spring and fall, over the Sahel during summer, and over the Congo basin during winter and spring. Diurnal temperature ranges increase over the Horn of Africa during boreal winter and over Kenya and Tanzania during boreal summer. The number of heat wave days increases north of 8°N with the largest increase (60?120 days) over the western Sahel. The number of dry days decreases over the Congo and the central Sahel but increases over East Africa, the latter associated with a reduction in the springtime long rains. The number of extreme wet rainfall days is projected to increase over West Africa, the Sahel, and the Ethiopian Highlands but decrease over the Congo. The predicted changes in extreme wet rainfall intensity are highly regional.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleMid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Extreme Events over Northern and Tropical Africa
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume25
    journal issue17
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00693.1
    journal fristpage5748
    journal lastpage5767
    treeJournal of Climate:;2012:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 017
    contenttypeFulltext
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