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    Future Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon: An Analysis of the CMIP3 Multimodel Projections

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2012:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 011::page 3909
    Author:
    Fan, Fangxing
    ,
    Mann, Michael E.
    ,
    Lee, Sukyoung
    ,
    Evans, Jenni L.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00133.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he projected future behavior of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is analyzed for the 720-ppm stabilization experiments [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B] of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The multimodel ensemble collectively exhibits a clear tendency for weakening SASM circulation and strengthening SASM precipitation during the twenty-first century. These tendencies are consistent, moreover, among multiple realizations for the same model where available.An annual correlation analysis and thermodynamic energy budget analysis are used to investigate the changes in the monsoon circulation, precipitation (latent heating), and dry static stability across time scales of variation. The strength of the SASM circulation is interpreted in terms of two competing factors: convective latent heating and dry static stability. It is found that on interannual time scales the latent heating wins out over the dry static stability to dominate the interannual fluctuations of the monsoonal circulation. However, the long-term trends in the SASM circulation are governed by the competing effects of the convective latent heating term and the adiabatic term to modify dry static stability in the thermodynamic energy budget.
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      Future Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon: An Analysis of the CMIP3 Multimodel Projections

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4221620
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    contributor authorFan, Fangxing
    contributor authorMann, Michael E.
    contributor authorLee, Sukyoung
    contributor authorEvans, Jenni L.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:04:08Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:04:08Z
    date copyright2012/06/01
    date issued2012
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-78901.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4221620
    description abstracthe projected future behavior of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is analyzed for the 720-ppm stabilization experiments [Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B] of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The multimodel ensemble collectively exhibits a clear tendency for weakening SASM circulation and strengthening SASM precipitation during the twenty-first century. These tendencies are consistent, moreover, among multiple realizations for the same model where available.An annual correlation analysis and thermodynamic energy budget analysis are used to investigate the changes in the monsoon circulation, precipitation (latent heating), and dry static stability across time scales of variation. The strength of the SASM circulation is interpreted in terms of two competing factors: convective latent heating and dry static stability. It is found that on interannual time scales the latent heating wins out over the dry static stability to dominate the interannual fluctuations of the monsoonal circulation. However, the long-term trends in the SASM circulation are governed by the competing effects of the convective latent heating term and the adiabatic term to modify dry static stability in the thermodynamic energy budget.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleFuture Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon: An Analysis of the CMIP3 Multimodel Projections
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume25
    journal issue11
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00133.1
    journal fristpage3909
    journal lastpage3928
    treeJournal of Climate:;2012:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 011
    contenttypeFulltext
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