Extratropical Influence on ITCZ Shifts in Slab Ocean Simulations of Global Warming

Abstract

ecent studies with climate models have demonstrated the power of extratropical forcing in causing the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) to shift northward or southward, and paleoclimate data support the notion that there have been large shifts in the ITCZ over time. It is shown that similar notions apply to slab ocean simulations of global warming. Nine slab ocean model simulations from different modeling centers show a wide range of ITCZ shifts in response to doubling carbon dioxide concentrations, which are experienced in a rather zonally symmetric way in the tropics. Using an attribution strategy based on fundamental energetic constraints, it is shown that responses of clouds and ice in the extratropics explain much of the range of ITCZ responses. There are also some positive feedbacks within the tropics due to increasing water vapor content and high clouds in the new ITCZ location, which amplify the changes driven from the extratropics. This study shows the clear importance of simulating extratropical climate responses with fidelity, because in addition to their local importance, the impacts of these climate responses have a large nonlocal impact on rainfall in the tropics.