Projecting Rainfall Changes over the South American Altiplano

Abstract

onsistent with its high elevation (>4000 m) and subtropical location (15°?25°S), the central Andes are expected to become warmer during the twenty-first century, affecting the population, ecosystems, and glaciers on the so-called South American Altiplano. Future changes in regional precipitation (even its sign) have been more difficult to estimate, partly because of the low resolution of current global climate models (GCMs) relative to the cross-mountain scale of the Andes. Nevertheless, summer season rainfall over the Altiplano exhibits a strong dependence on the magnitude of the zonal flow in the free troposphere, as quantified in this work using station data. Since GCMs indicate a consistent increase in westerly flow over the central Andes, hindering moisture transport from the interior of the continent, a simple regression analysis suggests a significant reduction (10%?30%) in Altiplano precipitation by the end of this century under moderate-to-strong greenhouse gas emission scenarios.