Seasonal and Long-Term Atmospheric Responses to Reemerging North Pacific Ocean Variability: A Combined Dynamical and Statistical Assessment

Abstract

The atmospheric response to a North Pacific subsurface oceanic temperature anomaly is studied in a coupled ocean?atmosphere general circulation model using a combined dynamical and statistical approach, with the focus on the evolution at seasonal and longer time scales. The atmospheric response is first assessed dynamically with an ensemble coupled experiment. The atmospheric response is found to exhibit a distinct seasonal evolution and a significant long-term response. The oceanic temperature anomaly reemerges each winter to force the atmosphere through an upward heat flux, forcing a clear seasonal atmospheric response locally over the Aleutian low and downstream over the North America/North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic regions. The atmospheric response is dominated by the early winter response with a warm SST-equivalent barotropic ridge and a wave train downstream. Starting in later winter, the atmospheric response weakens significantly and remains weak throughout the summer. The seasonal response of the atmosphere is then assessed statistically from the control simulation. It is found that the major features of the seasonal response, especially the strong warm SST?ridge response in early winter, are crudely consistent between the dynamical and statistical assessments. The statistical assessment is finally applied to the observation, which also suggests a strong seasonal atmospheric response locally over the North Pacific dominated by a warm SST?ridge response in early winter. One important conclusion is that the atmospheric response becomes more significant at annual and longer time scales, with the signal/noise ratio increasing up to 4 times from the monthly to the 4-yr mean response. This increased signal/noise ratio is caused by a much faster reduction of the atmospheric internal variability toward longer time scales than that of the response signal. The slow decrease of the response signal is due to the long persistence associated with the subsurface ocean. This suggests that the subsurface extratropical oceanic variability could have a much stronger impact on the extratropical atmosphere (and climate variability) at interannual?interdecadal time scales than at monthly?seasonal time scales.