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    Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and Their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2006:;volume( 019 ):;issue: 017::page 4418
    Author:
    Clark, Robin T.
    ,
    Brown, Simon J.
    ,
    Murphy, James M.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3877.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Changes in extreme daily temperature events are examined using a perturbed physics ensemble of global model simulations under present-day and doubled CO2 climates where ensemble members differ in their representation of various physical processes. Modeling uncertainties are quantified by varying poorly constrained model parameters that control atmospheric processes and feedbacks and analyzing the ensemble spread of simulated changes. In general, uncertainty is up to 50% of projected changes in extreme heat events of the type that occur only once per year. Large changes are seen in distributions of daily maximum temperatures for June, July, and August with significant shifts to warmer conditions. Changes in extremely hot days are shown to be significantly larger than changes in mean values in some regions. The intensity, duration, and frequency of summer heat waves are expected to be substantially greater over all continents. The largest changes are found over Europe, North and South America, and East Asia. Reductions in soil moisture, number of wet days, and nocturnal cooling are identified as significant factors responsible for the changes. Although uncertainty associated with the magnitude of expected changes is large in places, it does not bring into question the sign or nature of the projected changes. Even with the most conservative simulations, hot extreme events are still expected to substantially increase in intensity, duration, and frequency. This ensemble, however, does not represent the full range of uncertainty associated with future projections; for example, the effects of multiple parameter perturbations are neglected, as are the effects of structural changes to the basic nature of the parameterization schemes in the model.
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      Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and Their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4221002
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    contributor authorClark, Robin T.
    contributor authorBrown, Simon J.
    contributor authorMurphy, James M.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:02:22Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:02:22Z
    date copyright2006/09/01
    date issued2006
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-78343.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4221002
    description abstractChanges in extreme daily temperature events are examined using a perturbed physics ensemble of global model simulations under present-day and doubled CO2 climates where ensemble members differ in their representation of various physical processes. Modeling uncertainties are quantified by varying poorly constrained model parameters that control atmospheric processes and feedbacks and analyzing the ensemble spread of simulated changes. In general, uncertainty is up to 50% of projected changes in extreme heat events of the type that occur only once per year. Large changes are seen in distributions of daily maximum temperatures for June, July, and August with significant shifts to warmer conditions. Changes in extremely hot days are shown to be significantly larger than changes in mean values in some regions. The intensity, duration, and frequency of summer heat waves are expected to be substantially greater over all continents. The largest changes are found over Europe, North and South America, and East Asia. Reductions in soil moisture, number of wet days, and nocturnal cooling are identified as significant factors responsible for the changes. Although uncertainty associated with the magnitude of expected changes is large in places, it does not bring into question the sign or nature of the projected changes. Even with the most conservative simulations, hot extreme events are still expected to substantially increase in intensity, duration, and frequency. This ensemble, however, does not represent the full range of uncertainty associated with future projections; for example, the effects of multiple parameter perturbations are neglected, as are the effects of structural changes to the basic nature of the parameterization schemes in the model.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleModeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and Their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume19
    journal issue17
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI3877.1
    journal fristpage4418
    journal lastpage4435
    treeJournal of Climate:;2006:;volume( 019 ):;issue: 017
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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