YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Climate
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Climate
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    Long-Range Predictability in the Tropics. Part II: 30–60-Day Variability

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2005:;volume( 018 ):;issue: 005::page 634
    Author:
    Reichler, Thomas
    ,
    Roads, John O.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-3295.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: It is suggested that the slow evolution of the tropical Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) has the potential to improve the predictability of tropical and extratropical circulation systems at lead times beyond 2 weeks. In practice, however, the MJO phenomenon is extremely difficult to predict because of the lack of good observations, problems with ocean forecasts, and well-known model deficiencies. In this study, the potential skill in forecasting tropical intraseasonal variability is investigated by eliminating all those errors. This is accomplished by conducting five ensemble predictability experiments with a complex general circulation model and by verifying them under the perfect model assumption. The experiments are forced with different combinations of initial and boundary conditions to explore their sensitivity to uncertainties in those conditions. When ?perfect? initial and boundary conditions are provided, the model produces a realistic climatology and variability as compared to reanalysis, although the spectral peak of the simulated MJO is too broad. The effect of initial conditions is noticeable out to about 40 days. The quality of the boundary conditions is crucial at all lead times. The small but positive correlations at very long lead times are related to intraseasonal variability of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). When model, initial, and boundary conditions are all perfect, the useful forecast skill of intraseasonal variability is about 4 weeks. Predictability is insensitive to the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, but it is enhanced during years when the intraseasonal oscillation is more active. The results provide evidence that the MJO must be understood as a coupled system. As a consequence, it is concluded that further progress in the long-range predictability effort may require the use of fully interactive ocean models.
    • Download: (2.316Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      Long-Range Predictability in the Tropics. Part II: 30–60-Day Variability

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4220371
    Collections
    • Journal of Climate

    Show full item record

    contributor authorReichler, Thomas
    contributor authorRoads, John O.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T17:00:22Z
    date available2017-06-09T17:00:22Z
    date copyright2005/03/01
    date issued2005
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-77776.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4220371
    description abstractIt is suggested that the slow evolution of the tropical Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) has the potential to improve the predictability of tropical and extratropical circulation systems at lead times beyond 2 weeks. In practice, however, the MJO phenomenon is extremely difficult to predict because of the lack of good observations, problems with ocean forecasts, and well-known model deficiencies. In this study, the potential skill in forecasting tropical intraseasonal variability is investigated by eliminating all those errors. This is accomplished by conducting five ensemble predictability experiments with a complex general circulation model and by verifying them under the perfect model assumption. The experiments are forced with different combinations of initial and boundary conditions to explore their sensitivity to uncertainties in those conditions. When ?perfect? initial and boundary conditions are provided, the model produces a realistic climatology and variability as compared to reanalysis, although the spectral peak of the simulated MJO is too broad. The effect of initial conditions is noticeable out to about 40 days. The quality of the boundary conditions is crucial at all lead times. The small but positive correlations at very long lead times are related to intraseasonal variability of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). When model, initial, and boundary conditions are all perfect, the useful forecast skill of intraseasonal variability is about 4 weeks. Predictability is insensitive to the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, but it is enhanced during years when the intraseasonal oscillation is more active. The results provide evidence that the MJO must be understood as a coupled system. As a consequence, it is concluded that further progress in the long-range predictability effort may require the use of fully interactive ocean models.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleLong-Range Predictability in the Tropics. Part II: 30–60-Day Variability
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume18
    journal issue5
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-3295.1
    journal fristpage634
    journal lastpage650
    treeJournal of Climate:;2005:;volume( 018 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian