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    Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

    Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2016:;Volume( 074 ):;issue: 002::page 573
    Author:
    Munsell, Erin B.
    ,
    Zhang, Fuqing
    ,
    Sippel, Jason A.
    ,
    Braun, Scott A.
    ,
    Weng, Yonghui
    DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0018.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he dynamics and predictability of the intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are explored through a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates dropsondes collected during NASA?s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation. The 126-h forecasts are initialized when Edouard was designated as a tropical depression and include Edouard?s near?rapid intensification (RI) from a tropical storm to a strong category-2 hurricane. Although the deterministic forecast was very successful and many members correctly forecasted Edouard?s intensification, there was significant spread in the timing of intensification among the members of the ensemble.Utilizing composite groups created according to the near-RI-onset times of the members, it is shown that, for increasing magnitudes of deep-layer shear, RI onset is increasingly delayed; intensification will not occur once a critical shear threshold is exceeded. Although the timing of intensification varies by as much as 48 h, a decrease in shear is observed across the intensifying composite groups ~6?12 h prior to RI. This decrease in shear is accompanied by a reduction in vortex tilt, as the precession and subsequent alignment process begins ~24?48 h prior to RI. Sensitivity experiments reveal that some of the variation in RI timing can be attributed to differences in initial intensity, as the earliest-developing members have the strongest initial vortices regardless of their environment. Significant sensitivity and limited predictability exists for members with weaker initial vortices and/or that are embedded in less conducive environments, under which the randomness of moist convective processes and minute initial differences distant from the surface center can produce divergent forecasts.
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      Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

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    contributor authorMunsell, Erin B.
    contributor authorZhang, Fuqing
    contributor authorSippel, Jason A.
    contributor authorBraun, Scott A.
    contributor authorWeng, Yonghui
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:59:30Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:59:30Z
    date copyright2017/02/01
    date issued2016
    identifier issn0022-4928
    identifier otherams-77544.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4220114
    description abstracthe dynamics and predictability of the intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are explored through a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates dropsondes collected during NASA?s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation. The 126-h forecasts are initialized when Edouard was designated as a tropical depression and include Edouard?s near?rapid intensification (RI) from a tropical storm to a strong category-2 hurricane. Although the deterministic forecast was very successful and many members correctly forecasted Edouard?s intensification, there was significant spread in the timing of intensification among the members of the ensemble.Utilizing composite groups created according to the near-RI-onset times of the members, it is shown that, for increasing magnitudes of deep-layer shear, RI onset is increasingly delayed; intensification will not occur once a critical shear threshold is exceeded. Although the timing of intensification varies by as much as 48 h, a decrease in shear is observed across the intensifying composite groups ~6?12 h prior to RI. This decrease in shear is accompanied by a reduction in vortex tilt, as the precession and subsequent alignment process begins ~24?48 h prior to RI. Sensitivity experiments reveal that some of the variation in RI timing can be attributed to differences in initial intensity, as the earliest-developing members have the strongest initial vortices regardless of their environment. Significant sensitivity and limited predictability exists for members with weaker initial vortices and/or that are embedded in less conducive environments, under which the randomness of moist convective processes and minute initial differences distant from the surface center can produce divergent forecasts.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleDynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume74
    journal issue2
    journal titleJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences
    identifier doi10.1175/JAS-D-16-0018.1
    journal fristpage573
    journal lastpage595
    treeJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2016:;Volume( 074 ):;issue: 002
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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