Variability of Regional TOA Flux Diurnal Cycle Composites at the Monthly Time Scale

Abstract

iurnal variability is a fundamental component of Earth?s climate system. Clouds, temperature, and precipitation exhibit robust responses to the daily cycle of solar insolation. Recent work indicates significant variability in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux diurnal cycle in the tropics associated with monthly changes in the cloud diurnal cycle evolution. It has been proposed that the observed month-to-month variations in the TOA flux diurnal cycle are caused by anomalies in the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic state. This hypothesis is tested using a regression analysis to quantify the relationship between diurnal cycle shape and the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic state. TOA radiative fluxes are obtained from Clouds and the Earth?s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Edition 3 data and the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic state is taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis. Four regions representing traditional diurnal cycle regimes are used in this analysis: North Africa (land nonconvective), central South America (land convective), Peru marine stratocumulus (ocean nonconvective), and Indian Ocean (ocean convective). The results show a statistically significant diurnal cycle shape change and cloud response related to monthly atmospheric state anomalies. Using the single-variable regression relationships to predict monthly diurnal cycle variability shows improvements of 1%?18% over assuming a climatological diurnal cycle shape; the most significant gains are found in North Africa. The proposed hypothesis, therefore, contributes to diurnal cycle variability explaining at least 10%?20% of the total monthly-mean diurnal cycle variability.