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    Predictability and Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010) Examined through the EnKF Assimilation of Field Observations Collected during PREDICT

    Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2013:;Volume( 071 ):;issue: 004::page 1260
    Author:
    Poterjoy, Jonathan
    ,
    Zhang, Fuqing
    DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-13-0291.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: he genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010) is explored using analyses and forecasts from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that assimilates routinely collected observations as well as dropsonde measurements that were taken during the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field campaign. A total of 127 dropsonde observations were collected from six PREDICT flight missions over a 5-day period before and during Karl?s genesis. EnKF analyses that take into account the PREDICT dropsondes provide a detailed four-dimensional overview of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic structure within the pregenesis disturbance. In particular, the additional field observations are found to increase the low- and midlevel circulation and column moisture in the EnKF analyses and reduce the position error of the low-level vortex. Deterministic forecasts from these analyses show a 24-h improvement in predicting genesis over a control experiment that omits the dropsonde observations. In ensemble forecasts for this event, the more accurate analyses translate into a higher confidence in predicting the intensification of Karl; that is, data assimilation experiments also suggest that initial condition errors at the mesoscale pose large challenges for predicting genesis, thus highlighting the need for improved observation networks and more advanced data assimilation methods.
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      Predictability and Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010) Examined through the EnKF Assimilation of Field Observations Collected during PREDICT

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    contributor authorPoterjoy, Jonathan
    contributor authorZhang, Fuqing
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:56:48Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:56:48Z
    date copyright2014/04/01
    date issued2013
    identifier issn0022-4928
    identifier otherams-76873.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4219368
    description abstracthe genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010) is explored using analyses and forecasts from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that assimilates routinely collected observations as well as dropsonde measurements that were taken during the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field campaign. A total of 127 dropsonde observations were collected from six PREDICT flight missions over a 5-day period before and during Karl?s genesis. EnKF analyses that take into account the PREDICT dropsondes provide a detailed four-dimensional overview of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic structure within the pregenesis disturbance. In particular, the additional field observations are found to increase the low- and midlevel circulation and column moisture in the EnKF analyses and reduce the position error of the low-level vortex. Deterministic forecasts from these analyses show a 24-h improvement in predicting genesis over a control experiment that omits the dropsonde observations. In ensemble forecasts for this event, the more accurate analyses translate into a higher confidence in predicting the intensification of Karl; that is, data assimilation experiments also suggest that initial condition errors at the mesoscale pose large challenges for predicting genesis, thus highlighting the need for improved observation networks and more advanced data assimilation methods.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titlePredictability and Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010) Examined through the EnKF Assimilation of Field Observations Collected during PREDICT
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume71
    journal issue4
    journal titleJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences
    identifier doi10.1175/JAS-D-13-0291.1
    journal fristpage1260
    journal lastpage1275
    treeJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;2013:;Volume( 071 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian