Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts as Revealed by Singular Vectors

Abstract

Singular vector (SV) sensitivity, calculated using the adjoint model of the U.S. Navy Operation Global Atmosphere Prediction System (NOGAPS), is used to study the dynamics associated with tropical cyclone evolution. For each model-predicted tropical cyclone, SVs are constructed that optimize perturbation energy within a 20° by 20° latitude/longitude box centered on the 48-h forecast position of the cyclone. The initial SVs indicate regions where the 2-day forecast of the storm is very sensitive to changes in the analysis. Composites of the SVs for straight-moving cyclones and non-straight-moving cyclones that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere during its summer season in 2003 are examined. For both groups, the initial-time SV sensitivity exhibits a maximum within an annulus approximately 500 km from the center of the storms, in the region where the potential vorticity gradient of the vortex first changes sign. In the azimuthal direction, the composite initial-time SV maximum for the straight-moving group is located in the rear right quadrant with respect to the storm motion. The composite based on the non-straight-moving cyclones does not have a preferred quadrant in the vicinity of the storms and has larger amplitude away from the cyclones compared with the straight-moving storms, indicating more environmental influence on these storms. For both groups, the maximum initial sensitive areas are collocated with regions of flow moving toward the storm. While the initial SV maximum is located where the potential vorticity gradient changes sign, the final SV maximum is located where the potential vorticity gradient is a maximum. Examinations of individual cases demonstrate how SV sensitivity can be used to identify specific environmental influences on the storms. The relationship between the SV sensitivity and the potential vorticity is discussed. The results support the utility of SVs in applications to phenomena beyond midlatitude baroclinic systems.