Prediction of September–December Fire in New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) Using July Niño-4 Sea Surface Temperature Index

Abstract

n empirical statistical scheme for predicting September?December fires in New Caledonia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000?10 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Niño-4 box (5°S?5°N, 160°?210°E), which are closely related to austral spring (September?November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Nouméa) and its suburbs in the southwest of Grande Terre, and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the Niño-4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It is more likely that the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blur the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with central Pacific ENSO events.