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contributor authorCerruti, Brian J.
contributor authorDecker, Steven G.
date accessioned2017-06-09T16:49:03Z
date available2017-06-09T16:49:03Z
date copyright2012/02/01
date issued2011
identifier issn1558-8424
identifier otherams-74678.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4216929
description abstractgeneralized linear model (GLM) has been developed to relate meteorological conditions to damages incurred by the outdoor electrical equipment of Public Service Electric and Gas, the largest public utility in New Jersey. Utilizing a perfect-prognosis approach, the model consists of equations derived from a backward-eliminated multiple-linear-regression analysis of observed electrical equipment damage as the predictand and corresponding surface observations from a variety of sources including local storm reports as the predictors. Weather modes, defined objectively by surface observations, provided stratification of the data and served to increase correlations between the predictand and predictors. The resulting regression equations produced coefficients of determination up to 0.855, with the lowest values for the heat and cold modes, and the highest values for the thunderstorm and mix modes. The appropriate GLM equations were applied to an independent dataset for model validation, and the GLM shows skill [i.e., Heidke skill score (HSS) values greater than 0] at predicting various thresholds of total accumulated equipment damage. The GLM shows higher HSS values relative to a climatological approach and a baseline regression model. Two case studies analyzed to critique model performance yielded insight into GLM shortcomings, with lightning information and wind duration being found to be important missing predictors under certain circumstances.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleA Statistical Forecast Model of Weather-Related Damage to a Major Electric Utility
typeJournal Paper
journal volume51
journal issue2
journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
identifier doi10.1175/JAMC-D-11-09.1
journal fristpage191
journal lastpage204
treeJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:;2011:;volume( 051 ):;issue: 002
contenttypeFulltext


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