Simple Empirical Models for Estimating the Increase in the Central Pressure of Tropical Cyclones after Landfall along the Coastline of the United States

Abstract

Modeling the increase in the central pressure of tropical cyclones following landfall plays a critical role in the estimation of the hurricane wind hazard at locations removed from the coastline. This paper describes the development of simple empirical models for estimating the rate at which tropical cyclones decay after making landfall. For storms making landfall along the Gulf of Mexico Coast and the coast of the Florida Peninsula, it is shown that the rate of storm filling is proportional to the central pressure difference and translation speed at the time of landfall and is inversely proportional to the radius to maximum winds. Along the Atlantic Coast the effect of radius to maximum winds does not play as significant a role in the rate of storm decay as compared with that seen in Florida and along the Gulf Coast. The models developed here can readily be included in any hurricane simulation model designed for estimating wind speeds in the United States.