Sensitivity of Crop Water Need to 2071–95 Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Jamaica

Abstract

his study uses empirical models to examine the potential impact of climate change, based on a range of 100-yr phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) projections, on crop water need in Jamaica. As expected, crop water need increases with rising temperature and decreasing precipitation, especially in May?July. Comparing the temperature and precipitation impacts on crop water need indicates that the 25th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (moderate warming) yields a larger crop water deficit than the 75th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (wet winter and dry summer), but the 25th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (substantial drying) dominates the 75th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (extreme warming). Over the annual cycle, the warming contributes to larger crop water deficits from November to April, while the drying has a greater influence from May to October. All experiments decrease crop suitability, with the largest impact from March to August.