YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    Natural Gas Prices and the Extreme Winters of 2011/12 and 2013/14: Causes, Indicators, and Interactions

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2015:;volume( 096 ):;issue: 011::page 1879
    Author:
    Schreck, Carl J.
    ,
    Bennett, Stephen
    ,
    Cordeira, Jason M.
    ,
    Crouch, Jake
    ,
    Dissen, Jenny
    ,
    Lang, Andrea L.
    ,
    Margolin, David
    ,
    O’Shay, Adam
    ,
    Rennie, Jared
    ,
    Schneider, Thomas Ian
    ,
    Ventrice, Michael J.
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00237.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Day-to-day volatility in natural gas markets is driven largely by variability in heating demand, which is in turn dominated by cool-season temperature anomalies over the northeastern quadrant of the United States (?Midwest?East?). Energy traders rely on temperature forecasts at horizons of 2?4 weeks to anticipate those fluctuations in demand. Forecasts from dynamical models are widely available, so the markets react quickly to changes in the model predictions. Traders often work with meteorologists who leverage teleconnections from the tropics and the Arctic to improve upon the model forecasts. This study demonstrates how natural gas prices react to Midwest?East temperatures using the anomalous winters of 2011/12 and 2013/14. These examples also illustrate how energy meteorologists use teleconnections from the Arctic and the tropics to forecast heating demand. Winter 2011/12 was exceptionally warm, consistent with the positive Arctic Oscillation (AO). March 2012 was a fitting exclamation point on the winter as it featured the largest warm anomaly for the United States above the twentieth-century climatology of any month since 1895. The resulting lack of heating demand led to record surpluses of natural gas storage and spurred prices downward to an 11-yr low in April 2012. In sharp contrast, winter 2013/14 was unusually cold. An anomalous Alaskan ridge led to cold air being transported from Siberia into the United States, despite the AO generally being positive. The ensuing swell in heating demand exhausted the surplus natural gas inventory, and prices rose to their highest levels since the beginning of the global recession in 2008.
    • Download: (3.578Mb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      Natural Gas Prices and the Extreme Winters of 2011/12 and 2013/14: Causes, Indicators, and Interactions

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4215618
    Collections
    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

    Show full item record

    contributor authorSchreck, Carl J.
    contributor authorBennett, Stephen
    contributor authorCordeira, Jason M.
    contributor authorCrouch, Jake
    contributor authorDissen, Jenny
    contributor authorLang, Andrea L.
    contributor authorMargolin, David
    contributor authorO’Shay, Adam
    contributor authorRennie, Jared
    contributor authorSchneider, Thomas Ian
    contributor authorVentrice, Michael J.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:45:13Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:45:13Z
    date copyright2015/11/01
    date issued2015
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-73498.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4215618
    description abstractDay-to-day volatility in natural gas markets is driven largely by variability in heating demand, which is in turn dominated by cool-season temperature anomalies over the northeastern quadrant of the United States (?Midwest?East?). Energy traders rely on temperature forecasts at horizons of 2?4 weeks to anticipate those fluctuations in demand. Forecasts from dynamical models are widely available, so the markets react quickly to changes in the model predictions. Traders often work with meteorologists who leverage teleconnections from the tropics and the Arctic to improve upon the model forecasts. This study demonstrates how natural gas prices react to Midwest?East temperatures using the anomalous winters of 2011/12 and 2013/14. These examples also illustrate how energy meteorologists use teleconnections from the Arctic and the tropics to forecast heating demand. Winter 2011/12 was exceptionally warm, consistent with the positive Arctic Oscillation (AO). March 2012 was a fitting exclamation point on the winter as it featured the largest warm anomaly for the United States above the twentieth-century climatology of any month since 1895. The resulting lack of heating demand led to record surpluses of natural gas storage and spurred prices downward to an 11-yr low in April 2012. In sharp contrast, winter 2013/14 was unusually cold. An anomalous Alaskan ridge led to cold air being transported from Siberia into the United States, despite the AO generally being positive. The ensuing swell in heating demand exhausted the surplus natural gas inventory, and prices rose to their highest levels since the beginning of the global recession in 2008.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleNatural Gas Prices and the Extreme Winters of 2011/12 and 2013/14: Causes, Indicators, and Interactions
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume96
    journal issue11
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00237.1
    journal fristpage1879
    journal lastpage1894
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2015:;volume( 096 ):;issue: 011
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian