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    The Making of an Extreme Event: Putting the Pieces Together

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2013:;volume( 095 ):;issue: 003::page 427
    Author:
    Dole, Randall
    ,
    Hoerling, Martin
    ,
    Kumar, Arun
    ,
    Eischeid, Jon
    ,
    Perlwitz, Judith
    ,
    Quan, Xiao-Wei
    ,
    Kiladis, George
    ,
    Webb, Robert
    ,
    Murray, Donald
    ,
    Chen, Mingyue
    ,
    Wolter, Klaus
    ,
    Zhang, Tao
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00069.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: e how physical factors spanning climate and weather contributed to record warmth over the central and eastern United States in March 2012, when daily temperature anomalies at many locations exceeded 20°C. Over this region, approximately 1°C warming in March temperatures has occurred since 1901. This long-term regional warming is an order of magnitude smaller than temperature anomalies observed during the event, indicating that most of the extreme warmth must be explained by other factors. Several lines of evidence strongly implicate natural variations as the primary cause for the extreme event. The 2012 temperature anomalies had a close analog in an exceptionally warm U.S. March occurring over 100 years earlier, providing observational evidence that an extreme event similar to March 2012 could be produced through natural variability alone. Coupled model forecasts and simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) show that forcing from anomalous SSTs increased the probability of extreme warm temperatures in March 2012 above that anticipated from the long-term warming trend. In addition, forcing associated with a strong Madden?Julian oscillation further increased the probability for extreme U.S. warmth and provided important additional predictive information on the timing and spatial pattern of temperature anomalies. The results indicate that the superposition of a strong natural variation similar to March 1910 on longterm warming of the magnitude observed would be sufficient to account for the record warm March 2012 U.S. temperatures. We conclude that the extreme warmth over the central and eastern United States in March 2012 resulted primarily from natural climate and weather variability? a substantial fraction of which was predictable.
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      The Making of an Extreme Event: Putting the Pieces Together

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    contributor authorDole, Randall
    contributor authorHoerling, Martin
    contributor authorKumar, Arun
    contributor authorEischeid, Jon
    contributor authorPerlwitz, Judith
    contributor authorQuan, Xiao-Wei
    contributor authorKiladis, George
    contributor authorWebb, Robert
    contributor authorMurray, Donald
    contributor authorChen, Mingyue
    contributor authorWolter, Klaus
    contributor authorZhang, Tao
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:44:27Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:44:27Z
    date copyright2014/03/01
    date issued2013
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-73283.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4215380
    description abstracte how physical factors spanning climate and weather contributed to record warmth over the central and eastern United States in March 2012, when daily temperature anomalies at many locations exceeded 20°C. Over this region, approximately 1°C warming in March temperatures has occurred since 1901. This long-term regional warming is an order of magnitude smaller than temperature anomalies observed during the event, indicating that most of the extreme warmth must be explained by other factors. Several lines of evidence strongly implicate natural variations as the primary cause for the extreme event. The 2012 temperature anomalies had a close analog in an exceptionally warm U.S. March occurring over 100 years earlier, providing observational evidence that an extreme event similar to March 2012 could be produced through natural variability alone. Coupled model forecasts and simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) show that forcing from anomalous SSTs increased the probability of extreme warm temperatures in March 2012 above that anticipated from the long-term warming trend. In addition, forcing associated with a strong Madden?Julian oscillation further increased the probability for extreme U.S. warmth and provided important additional predictive information on the timing and spatial pattern of temperature anomalies. The results indicate that the superposition of a strong natural variation similar to March 1910 on longterm warming of the magnitude observed would be sufficient to account for the record warm March 2012 U.S. temperatures. We conclude that the extreme warmth over the central and eastern United States in March 2012 resulted primarily from natural climate and weather variability? a substantial fraction of which was predictable.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleThe Making of an Extreme Event: Putting the Pieces Together
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume95
    journal issue3
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00069.1
    journal fristpage427
    journal lastpage440
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2013:;volume( 095 ):;issue: 003
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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