Nowcasting: The Promise of New Technologies of Communication, Modeling, and Observation

Abstract

g combines a description of the current state of the atmosphere and a short-term forecast of how the atmosphere will evolve during the next several hours. A convergence of technical developments has set the stage for a major jump in nowcasting capabilities and the ability to apply those advances to important societal needs. New communications technologies, including broadband Internet, wireless communication, social media, and smartphones, have made the distribution and application of real-time weather information possible nearly anywhere. Rapid increases in the quantity and quality of surface, aircraft, and remote-sensing data now provide a real-time description of atmospheric conditions from the global to regional scales. Improved modeling and data assimilation offer the potential to more effectively apply mesoscale observations and to produce highresolution analyses and forecasts. Finally, improvements in communication, computation, and control have provided society with the ability to effectively access and use nowcasting information for the protection of life and property, as well as facilitating commerce and recreation. This paper describes these individual advances, the synergies of their combination, and how the forecast process might change as a result during the next few decades.