The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program

Abstract

The New England High-Resolution Temperature Program seeks to improve the accuracy of summertime 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature forecasts in the New England region through a collaborative effort between the research and operational components of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The four main components of this program are 1) improved surface and boundary layer observations for model initialization, 2) special observations for the assessment and improvement of model physical process parameterization schemes, 3) using model forecast ensemble data to improve upon the operational forecasts for near-surface variables, and 4) transfering knowledge gained to commercial weather services and end users. Since 2002 this program has enhanced surface temperature observations by adding 70 new automated Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites, identified and collected data from over 1000 non-NOAA mesonet sites, and deployed boundary layer profilers and other special instrumentation throughout the New England region to better observe the surface energy budget. Comparisons of these special datasets with numerical model forecasts indicate that near-surface temperature errors are strongly correlated to errors in the model-predicted radiation fields. The attenuation of solar radiation by aerosols is one potential source of the model radiation bias. However, even with these model errors, results from bias-corrected ensemble forecasts are more accurate than the operational model output statistics (MOS) forecasts for 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature, while also providing reliable forecast probabilities. Discussions with commerical weather vendors and end users have emphasized the potential economic value of these probabilistic ensemble-generated forecasts.