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    How Predictable is El Niño?

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2003:;volume( 084 ):;issue: 007::page 911
    Author:
    Fedorov, A. V.
    ,
    Harper, S. L.
    ,
    Philander, S. G.
    ,
    Winter, B.
    ,
    Wittenberg, A.
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-84-7-911
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Nobody anticipated that El Niño would be weak and prolonged in 1992, but brief and intense in 1997/98. Why are various El Niño episodes so different, and so difficult to predict? The answer involves the important role played by random atmospheric disturbances (such as westerly wind bursts) in sustaining the weakly damped Southern Oscillation, whose complementary warm and cold phases are, respectively, El Niño and La Niña. As in the case of a damped pendulum sustained by modest blows at random times, so the predictability of El Niño is limited, not by the amplification of errors in initial conditions as in the case of weather, but mainly by atmospheric disturbances interacting with the Southern Oscillation. Given the statistics of the wind fluctuations, the probability distribution function of future sea surface temperature fluctuations in the eastern equatorial Pacific can be determined by means of an ensemble of calculations with a coupled ocean?atmosphere model. Each member of the ensemble starts from the same initial conditions and has, superimposed, a different realization of the noise. Such a prediction, made at the end of 1996, would have assigned a higher likelihood to a moderate event than to the extremely strong event that actually occurred in 1997. (The rapid succession of several westerly wind bursts in early 1997 was a relatively rare phenomenon.) In late 2001, conditions were similar to those in 1996, which suggested a relatively high probability of El Niño appearing in 2002. Whether the event will be weak or intense depends on the random disturbances that materialize during the year.
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      How Predictable is El Niño?

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    contributor authorFedorov, A. V.
    contributor authorHarper, S. L.
    contributor authorPhilander, S. G.
    contributor authorWinter, B.
    contributor authorWittenberg, A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:42:19Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:42:19Z
    date copyright2003/07/01
    date issued2003
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-72612.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4214635
    description abstractNobody anticipated that El Niño would be weak and prolonged in 1992, but brief and intense in 1997/98. Why are various El Niño episodes so different, and so difficult to predict? The answer involves the important role played by random atmospheric disturbances (such as westerly wind bursts) in sustaining the weakly damped Southern Oscillation, whose complementary warm and cold phases are, respectively, El Niño and La Niña. As in the case of a damped pendulum sustained by modest blows at random times, so the predictability of El Niño is limited, not by the amplification of errors in initial conditions as in the case of weather, but mainly by atmospheric disturbances interacting with the Southern Oscillation. Given the statistics of the wind fluctuations, the probability distribution function of future sea surface temperature fluctuations in the eastern equatorial Pacific can be determined by means of an ensemble of calculations with a coupled ocean?atmosphere model. Each member of the ensemble starts from the same initial conditions and has, superimposed, a different realization of the noise. Such a prediction, made at the end of 1996, would have assigned a higher likelihood to a moderate event than to the extremely strong event that actually occurred in 1997. (The rapid succession of several westerly wind bursts in early 1997 was a relatively rare phenomenon.) In late 2001, conditions were similar to those in 1996, which suggested a relatively high probability of El Niño appearing in 2002. Whether the event will be weak or intense depends on the random disturbances that materialize during the year.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleHow Predictable is El Niño?
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume84
    journal issue7
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/BAMS-84-7-911
    journal fristpage911
    journal lastpage919
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2003:;volume( 084 ):;issue: 007
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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