Are Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Increasing over the U.S. High Plains?

Abstract

arge-scale environmental, social, and economic impacts of recent weather and climate extremes are raising questions about whether the frequency and intensity of these extremes have been increasing. Here, the authors evaluate trends in climate extremes during the past half century using the U.S. High Plains as a case study. A total of eight different extreme indices and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) were evaluated using daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data from 207 stations and 0.25° gridded data. The 1958?2010 time period was selected to exclude the 1950s and 2011 droughts. Results show general consistency between the station data and gridded data. The annual extreme temperature range (ETR) decreased significantly (p < 0.05) in ~54% of the High Plains, with a spatial mean rate of ?0.7°C decade?1. Decreases in ETR result primarily from increases in annual lowest temperature in ~63% of the stations at a mean rate of ~0.9°C decade?1, whereas increases in annual highest temperature were much less. Approximately 43% of the stations showed increasing warm nights (Tmin90) with a spatial mean rate of 0.5% decade?1. Precipitation intensity generally did not vary significantly in most grid cells and stations. Significant decreasing trends in consecutive dry days (CDD) were restricted to 21% of the stations in the northern High Plains with a spatial mean of ?0.8 days decade?1. Areas experiencing severe dry periods (1-month SPI < ?1.5) decreased over time from 8% to 4%. The number of dry months (SPI < 0) in each year also decreased. In summary, the ETR is decreasing and low temperatures are increasing. Precipitation extremes are generally not changing in the High Plains; however, high natural climatic variability in this semiarid region makes it difficult to assess climate extremes.