Life Cycle Study of a Diabatic Rossby Wave as a Precursor to Rapid Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic—Dynamics and Forecast Performance

Abstract

he life cycle of a North Atlantic cyclone in December 2005 that included a rapid propagation phase as a diabatic Rossby wave (DRW) is investigated by means of operational analyses and deterministic forecasts from the ECMWF. A quasigeostrophic omega diagnostic has been applied to assess the impact of upper-level forcing during the genesis, propagation, and intensification phase, respectively. The system was generated in the Gulf of Mexico as a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) influenced by vertical motion forcing from a nearby upper-level trough. The DRW propagation phase was characterized by a shallow, low-level, diabatically produced potential vorticity (PV) anomaly that rapidly propagated along the southern border of an intense baroclinic zone. No significant upper-level forcing could be identified during this phase of the development. Eventually, explosive intensification occurred as the region of vertical motion forced by an approaching upper-level trough reached the position of the DRW. The rapid intensification of 34 hPa in 24 h led to a mature extratropical cyclone in the central North Atlantic with marked frontal structures associated with a pronounced PV tower.The performance of four operational deterministic ECMWF forecasts has been investigated for the DRW propagation and cyclone intensification. The forecasts showed a highly variable skill. Despite the fact that the DRW was initially well represented in all forecasts, two of them failed to capture the explosive intensification. By applying a DRW tracking tool, the low-level baroclinicity downstream of the DRW and the moisture supply to the south of the DRW could be identified as the key environmental parameters during DRW propagation. The subsequent cyclone intensification went wrong in two of the forecasts because of the missing interaction of the DRW and the upper-level trough. It is shown that this interaction can fail if the intensity of the DRW and/or the approaching upper-level wave are too weak, or in case of an erroneous structure of the upper-level trough leading to a phasing problem of the vertical interaction with the DRW. Therefore, the DRW intensification bears similar characteristics and forecast challenges as the extratropical reintensification of tropical cyclones.