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    Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States: Validation of Precipitation Downscaling during the Historical Era

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2011:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 002::page 509
    Author:
    Ning, Liang
    ,
    Mann, Michael E.
    ,
    Crane, Robert
    ,
    Wagener, Thorsten
    DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4091.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: his study uses a statistical downscaling method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) to produce high-resolution, downscaled precipitation estimates over the state of Pennsylvania in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The SOMs approach derives a transfer function between large-scale mean atmospheric states and local meteorological variables (daily point precipitation values) of interest. First, the SOM was trained using seven coarsely resolved atmospheric variables from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset to model observed daily precipitation data from 17 stations across Pennsylvania for the period 1979?2005. Employing the same coarsely resolved variables from nine general circulation model (GCM) simulations taken from the historical analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), the trained SOM was subsequently applied to simulate daily precipitation at the same 17 sites for the period 1961?2000. The SOM analysis indicates that the nine model simulations exhibit similar synoptic-scale features to the (NCEP) observations over the 1979?2007 training interval. An analysis of the sea level pressure signatures and the precipitation distribution corresponding to the trained SOM shows that it is effective in differentiating characteristic synoptic circulation patterns and associated precipitation. The downscaling approach provides a faithful reproduction of the observed probability distributions and temporal characteristics of precipitation on both daily and monthly time scales. The downscaled precipitation field shows significant improvement over the raw GCM precipitation fields with regard to observed average monthly precipitation amounts, average monthly number of rainy days, and standard deviations of monthly precipitation amounts, although certain caveats are noted.
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      Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States: Validation of Precipitation Downscaling during the Historical Era

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4213847
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    contributor authorNing, Liang
    contributor authorMann, Michael E.
    contributor authorCrane, Robert
    contributor authorWagener, Thorsten
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:40:13Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:40:13Z
    date copyright2012/01/01
    date issued2011
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-71903.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4213847
    description abstracthis study uses a statistical downscaling method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) to produce high-resolution, downscaled precipitation estimates over the state of Pennsylvania in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The SOMs approach derives a transfer function between large-scale mean atmospheric states and local meteorological variables (daily point precipitation values) of interest. First, the SOM was trained using seven coarsely resolved atmospheric variables from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset to model observed daily precipitation data from 17 stations across Pennsylvania for the period 1979?2005. Employing the same coarsely resolved variables from nine general circulation model (GCM) simulations taken from the historical analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), the trained SOM was subsequently applied to simulate daily precipitation at the same 17 sites for the period 1961?2000. The SOM analysis indicates that the nine model simulations exhibit similar synoptic-scale features to the (NCEP) observations over the 1979?2007 training interval. An analysis of the sea level pressure signatures and the precipitation distribution corresponding to the trained SOM shows that it is effective in differentiating characteristic synoptic circulation patterns and associated precipitation. The downscaling approach provides a faithful reproduction of the observed probability distributions and temporal characteristics of precipitation on both daily and monthly time scales. The downscaled precipitation field shows significant improvement over the raw GCM precipitation fields with regard to observed average monthly precipitation amounts, average monthly number of rainy days, and standard deviations of monthly precipitation amounts, although certain caveats are noted.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleProbabilistic Projections of Climate Change for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States: Validation of Precipitation Downscaling during the Historical Era
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume25
    journal issue2
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/2011JCLI4091.1
    journal fristpage509
    journal lastpage526
    treeJournal of Climate:;2011:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 002
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian