Observed Evidence of an Impact of the Antarctic Sea Ice Dipole on the Antarctic Oscillation

Abstract

lagged maximum covariance analysis (MCA) is applied to investigate the linear covariability between monthly sea ice concentration (SIC) and 500-mb geopotential height (Z500) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The dominant signal is the atmospheric forcing of SIC anomalies throughout the year, but statistically significant covariances are also found between austral springtime Z500 and prior SIC anomalies up to four months earlier. The MCA pattern is characterized by an Antarctic dipole (ADP)-like pattern in SIC and a positively polarized Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in Z500. Such long lead-time covariance suggests the forcing of the AAO by persistent ADP-like SIC anomalies. The leading time of SIC anomalies provides an implication for skillful predictability of springtime atmospheric variability.