A Comparative Verification of Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Forecasts of Ceiling Height and Visibility

Abstract

In an effort to support aviation forecasting, the National Weather Service?s Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently redeveloped the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics (MOS) Program (LAMP) system. LAMP is designed to run hourly in NWS operations and produce short-range aviation forecast guidance at 1-h projections out to 25 h. This paper compares and contrasts LAMP ceiling height and visibility forecasts with forecasts produced by the 20-km Rapid Update Cycle model (RUC20), the Weather Research and Forecasting Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM), and the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). RUC20 and WRF-NMM forecasts of continuous ceiling height and visibility were interpolated to stations and converted into categorical forecasts. These interpolated forecasts were also categorized into instrument flight rule (IFR) or lower conditions and verified against LAMP forecasts at stations in the contiguous United States. LAMP and SREF probabilistic forecasts of ceiling height and visibility from LAMP and the SREF system were also verified. This study demonstrates that for the 0000 and 1200 UTC cycles over the contiguous United States, LAMP station-based categorical forecasts of ceiling height, visibility, and IFR conditions or lower are more accurate than the RUC20 and WRF-NMM ceiling height and visibility forecasts interpolated to stations. Moreover, for the 0900 and 2100 UTC forecast cycles and verification periods studied here, LAMP ceiling height and visibility probabilities exhibit better reliability and skill than the SREF system.