The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States

Abstract

The occurrence of rare but significant severe weather events associated with elevated mixed-layer (EML) air in the northeastern United States is investigated herein. A total of 447 convective event days with one or more significant severe weather report [where significant is defined as hail 2 in. (5.1 cm) in diameter or greater, a convective gust of 65 kt (33 m s?1) or greater, and/or a tornado of F2 or greater intensity] were identified from 1970 through 2006 during the warm season (1 May?30 September). Of these, 34 event days (7.6%) were associated with identifiable EML air in regional rawinsondes preceding the event. Taken with two other noteworthy events in 1953 and 1969, a total of 36 significant severe weather events associated with EML air were studied via composite and trajectory analysis. Though a small percentage of the total, these 36 events compose a noteworthy list of historically significant derechos and tornadic events to affect the northeastern United States. It is demonstrated that plumes of EML air emanating from the Intermountain West in subsiding, anticyclonically curved flows can reinforce the capping inversion and maintain the integrity of the EML across the central United States over a few days. The EML plume can ultimately become entrained into a moderately fast westerly to northwesterly midtropospheric flow allowing for the plume?s advection into the northeastern United States. Resultant thermodynamic conditions in the convective storm environment are similar to those more typically observed closer to the EML source region in the Great Plains of the United States. In addition to composite and trajectory analysis, two case studies are employed to demonstrate salient and evolutionary aspects of the EML in such events. A lapse rate tendency equation is explored to put EML advection in context with other processes affecting lapse rate.