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    Tracking and Verification of East Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NCEP Global Ensemble: Case Studies during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2010:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 005::page 1397
    Author:
    Snyder, Andrew D.
    ,
    Pu, Zhaoxia
    ,
    Zhu, Yuejian
    DOI: 10.1175/2010WAF2222332.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: This study evaluates the performance of the NCEP global ensemble forecast system in predicting the genesis and evolution of five named tropical cyclones and two unnamed nondeveloping tropical systems during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA) between August and September 2006. The overall probabilities of the ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone genesis are verified relative to a genesis time defined to be the first designation of the tropical depression from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Additional comparisons are also made with high-resolution deterministic forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). It is found that the ensemble forecasts have high probabilities of genesis for the three strong storms that formed from African easterly waves, but failed to accurately predict the pregenesis phase of two weaker storms that formed farther west in the Atlantic Ocean. The overall accuracy for the genesis forecasts is above 50% for the ensemble forecasts initialized in the pregenesis phase. The forecast uncertainty decreases with the reduction of the forecast lead time. The probability of tropical cyclone genesis reaches nearly 90% and 100% for the ensemble forecasts initialized near and in the postgenesis phase, respectively. Significant improvements in the track forecasts are found in the ensemble forecasts initialized in the postgenesis phase, possibly because of the implementation of the NCEP storm relocation scheme, which provides an accurate initial storm position for all ensemble members. Even with coarser resolution (T126L28 for the ensemble versus T384L64 for the GFS), the overall performance of the ensemble in predicting tropical cyclone genesis is compatible with the high-resolution deterministic GFS. In addition, false alarm rates for nondeveloping waves were low in both the GFS and ensemble forecasts.
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      Tracking and Verification of East Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NCEP Global Ensemble: Case Studies during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4213349
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    contributor authorSnyder, Andrew D.
    contributor authorPu, Zhaoxia
    contributor authorZhu, Yuejian
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:38:34Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:38:34Z
    date copyright2010/10/01
    date issued2010
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-71455.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4213349
    description abstractThis study evaluates the performance of the NCEP global ensemble forecast system in predicting the genesis and evolution of five named tropical cyclones and two unnamed nondeveloping tropical systems during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA) between August and September 2006. The overall probabilities of the ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone genesis are verified relative to a genesis time defined to be the first designation of the tropical depression from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Additional comparisons are also made with high-resolution deterministic forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). It is found that the ensemble forecasts have high probabilities of genesis for the three strong storms that formed from African easterly waves, but failed to accurately predict the pregenesis phase of two weaker storms that formed farther west in the Atlantic Ocean. The overall accuracy for the genesis forecasts is above 50% for the ensemble forecasts initialized in the pregenesis phase. The forecast uncertainty decreases with the reduction of the forecast lead time. The probability of tropical cyclone genesis reaches nearly 90% and 100% for the ensemble forecasts initialized near and in the postgenesis phase, respectively. Significant improvements in the track forecasts are found in the ensemble forecasts initialized in the postgenesis phase, possibly because of the implementation of the NCEP storm relocation scheme, which provides an accurate initial storm position for all ensemble members. Even with coarser resolution (T126L28 for the ensemble versus T384L64 for the GFS), the overall performance of the ensemble in predicting tropical cyclone genesis is compatible with the high-resolution deterministic GFS. In addition, false alarm rates for nondeveloping waves were low in both the GFS and ensemble forecasts.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleTracking and Verification of East Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NCEP Global Ensemble: Case Studies during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume25
    journal issue5
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/2010WAF2222332.1
    journal fristpage1397
    journal lastpage1411
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2010:;volume( 025 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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