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    Understanding the Anomalously Cold European Winter of 2005/06 Using Relaxation Experiments

    Source: Monthly Weather Review:;2010:;volume( 138 ):;issue: 008::page 3157
    Author:
    Jung, T.
    ,
    Palmer, T. N.
    ,
    Rodwell, M. J.
    ,
    Serrar, S.
    DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3258.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Experiments with the atmospheric component of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) have been carried out to study the origin of the atmospheric circulation anomalies that led to the unusually cold European winter of 2005/06. Experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice fields fail to reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation anomalies suggesting that the role of SST and sea ice was either not very important or the atmospheric response to SST and sea ice was not very well captured by the ECMWF model. Additional experiments are carried out in which certain regions of the atmosphere are relaxed toward analysis data thereby artificially suppressing the development of forecast error. The relaxation experiments suggest that both tropospheric circulation anomalies in the Euro?Atlantic region and the anomalously weak stratospheric polar vortex can be explained by tropical circulation anomalies. Separate relaxation experiments for the tropical stratosphere and tropical troposphere highlight the role of the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and, most importantly, tropospheric circulation anomalies, especially over South America and the tropical Atlantic. From the results presented in this study, it is argued that the relaxation technique is a powerful diagnostic tool to understand possible remote origins of seasonal-mean anomalies.
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      Understanding the Anomalously Cold European Winter of 2005/06 Using Relaxation Experiments

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4213135
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    • Monthly Weather Review

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    contributor authorJung, T.
    contributor authorPalmer, T. N.
    contributor authorRodwell, M. J.
    contributor authorSerrar, S.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:37:51Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:37:51Z
    date copyright2010/08/01
    date issued2010
    identifier issn0027-0644
    identifier otherams-71262.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4213135
    description abstractExperiments with the atmospheric component of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) have been carried out to study the origin of the atmospheric circulation anomalies that led to the unusually cold European winter of 2005/06. Experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice fields fail to reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation anomalies suggesting that the role of SST and sea ice was either not very important or the atmospheric response to SST and sea ice was not very well captured by the ECMWF model. Additional experiments are carried out in which certain regions of the atmosphere are relaxed toward analysis data thereby artificially suppressing the development of forecast error. The relaxation experiments suggest that both tropospheric circulation anomalies in the Euro?Atlantic region and the anomalously weak stratospheric polar vortex can be explained by tropical circulation anomalies. Separate relaxation experiments for the tropical stratosphere and tropical troposphere highlight the role of the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and, most importantly, tropospheric circulation anomalies, especially over South America and the tropical Atlantic. From the results presented in this study, it is argued that the relaxation technique is a powerful diagnostic tool to understand possible remote origins of seasonal-mean anomalies.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleUnderstanding the Anomalously Cold European Winter of 2005/06 Using Relaxation Experiments
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume138
    journal issue8
    journal titleMonthly Weather Review
    identifier doi10.1175/2010MWR3258.1
    journal fristpage3157
    journal lastpage3174
    treeMonthly Weather Review:;2010:;volume( 138 ):;issue: 008
    contenttypeFulltext
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