A Bayesian Regression Approach to Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Fiji Region

Abstract

This study presents seasonal prediction schemes for tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting the Fiji, Samoa, and Tonga (FST) region. Two separate Bayesian regression models are developed: (i) for cyclones forming within the FST region (FORM) and (ii) for cyclones entering the FST region (ENT). Predictors examined include various El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and large-scale environmental parameters. Only those predictors that showed significant correlations with FORM and ENT are retained. Significant preseason correlations are found as early as May?July (approximately three months in advance). Therefore, May?July predictors are used to make initial predictions, and updated predictions are issued later using October?December early-cyclone-season predictors. A number of predictor combinations are evaluated through a cross-validation technique. Results suggest that a model based on relative vorticity and the Niño-4 index is optimal to predict the annual number of TCs associated with FORM, as it has the smallest RMSE associated with its hindcasts (RMSE = 1.63). Similarly, the all-parameter-combined model, which includes the Niño-4 index and some large-scale environmental fields over the East China Sea, appears appropriate to predict the annual number of TCs associated with ENT (RMSE = 0.98). While the all-parameter-combined ENT model appears to have good skill over all years, the May?July prediction of the annual number of TCs associated with FORM has two limitations. First, it underestimates (overestimates) the formation for years where the onset of El Niño (La Niña) events is after the May?July preseason or where a previous La Niña (El Niño) event continued through May?July during its decay phase. Second, its performance in neutral conditions is quite variable. Overall, no significant skill can be achieved for neutral conditions even after an October?December update. This is contrary to the performance during El Niño or La Niña events, where model performance is improved substantially after an October?December early-cyclone-season update.