Observational Analysis of Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes in the Vicinity of the East China Sea

Abstract

n observational analysis of observed sudden typhoon track changes is conducted with a focus on the underlying mechanism and the possible role of slowly varying low-frequency flows. Four typhoons that took a generally northwestward track prior to sharply turning northeastward in the vicinity of the East China Sea are investigated.It is found that the sudden track changes occurred near the center of the Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO)-scale cyclonic circulation or at the bifurcation point of the steering flows at 700 hPa, and they were all associated with a well-developed quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW)-scale gyre. Calculation of vorticity advection suggests that the peripheral ridging resulting from the interaction between the typhoons and the flows on the MJO and QBW scales can compress the typhoon circulation, leading to an area of high winds to the east or south of the typhoon center. The enhanced synoptic-scale winds shifted the typhoons northward and placed them in a northeastward orbit under the steering of the flows associated with the Pacific subtropical high. The sudden track change can be likened to the maneuvering of satellite orbit change in that the enhanced synoptic-scale winds act as a booster rocket to shift the typhoons northward to the southwesterly steering flows.