Risk of Strong Hurricane Winds to Florida Cities

Abstract

A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Florida. The procedure, called the hurricane risk calculator, provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that the city of Miami can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 50 m s?1 [45.5?54.5 m s?1 is the 90% confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 12 yr. In comparison, the city of Pensacola can expect to see hurricane winds of 50 m s?1 (46.9?53.1 m s?1, 90% CI) or stronger once every 24 yr. A quantile regression is applied to hurricane wind speeds in the vicinity of Florida. Results show that the strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as a consequence of higher offshore intensification rates.