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    Using Tree Rings to Predict the Response of Tree Growth to Climate Change in the Continental United States during the Twenty-First Century

    Source: Earth Interactions:;2010:;volume( 014 ):;issue: 019::page 1
    Author:
    Williams, A. Park
    ,
    Michaelsen, Joel
    ,
    Leavitt, Steven W.
    ,
    Still, Christopher J.
    DOI: 10.1175/2010EI362.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: In the early 1900s, tree-ring scientists began analyzing the relative widths of annual growth rings preserved in the cross sections of trees to infer past climate variations. Now, many ring-width index (RWI) chronologies, each representing a specific site and species, are archived online within the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). Comparing annual tree-ring-width data from 1097 sites in the continental United States to climate data, the authors quantitatively evaluated how trees at each site have historically responded to interannual climate variations. For each site, they developed a climate-driven statistical growth equation that uses regional climate variables to model RWI values. The authors applied these growth models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change, considering four climate projections. Although caution should be taken when extrapolating past relationships with climate into the future, the authors observed several clear and interesting patterns in the growth projections that seem likely if warming continues. Most notably, the models project that productivity of dominant tree species in the southwestern United States will decrease substantially during this century, especially in warmer and drier areas. In the northwest, nonlinear growth relationships with temperature may lead to warming-induced declines in growth for many trees that historically responded positively to warmer temperatures. This work takes advantage of the unmatched temporal length and spatial breath of annual growth data available within the ITRDB and exemplifies the potential of this ever-growing archive of tree-ring data to serve in meta-analyses of large-scale forest ecology.
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      Using Tree Rings to Predict the Response of Tree Growth to Climate Change in the Continental United States during the Twenty-First Century

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4211667
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    contributor authorWilliams, A. Park
    contributor authorMichaelsen, Joel
    contributor authorLeavitt, Steven W.
    contributor authorStill, Christopher J.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:33:26Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:33:26Z
    date copyright2010/12/01
    date issued2010
    identifier otherams-69942.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4211667
    description abstractIn the early 1900s, tree-ring scientists began analyzing the relative widths of annual growth rings preserved in the cross sections of trees to infer past climate variations. Now, many ring-width index (RWI) chronologies, each representing a specific site and species, are archived online within the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). Comparing annual tree-ring-width data from 1097 sites in the continental United States to climate data, the authors quantitatively evaluated how trees at each site have historically responded to interannual climate variations. For each site, they developed a climate-driven statistical growth equation that uses regional climate variables to model RWI values. The authors applied these growth models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change, considering four climate projections. Although caution should be taken when extrapolating past relationships with climate into the future, the authors observed several clear and interesting patterns in the growth projections that seem likely if warming continues. Most notably, the models project that productivity of dominant tree species in the southwestern United States will decrease substantially during this century, especially in warmer and drier areas. In the northwest, nonlinear growth relationships with temperature may lead to warming-induced declines in growth for many trees that historically responded positively to warmer temperatures. This work takes advantage of the unmatched temporal length and spatial breath of annual growth data available within the ITRDB and exemplifies the potential of this ever-growing archive of tree-ring data to serve in meta-analyses of large-scale forest ecology.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleUsing Tree Rings to Predict the Response of Tree Growth to Climate Change in the Continental United States during the Twenty-First Century
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume14
    journal issue19
    journal titleEarth Interactions
    identifier doi10.1175/2010EI362.1
    journal fristpage1
    journal lastpage20
    treeEarth Interactions:;2010:;volume( 014 ):;issue: 019
    contenttypeFulltext
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