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    Applying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2009:;volume( 024 ):;issue: 006::page 1748
    Author:
    Brill, Keith F.
    ,
    Mesinger, Fedor
    DOI: 10.1175/2009WAF2222272.1
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit bias sensitivity. The critical performance ratio (CPR) is the minimum fraction of added forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is increased. In the opposite case, the CPR is the maximum fraction of removed forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is decreased. The CPR is derived here for the bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores to quantify bias sensitivity relative to several other measures of performance including conventional threat and equitable threat scores. The CPR for a bias-adjusted equitable threat score may indicate the likelihood of preserving or increasing the conventional equitable threat score if forecasts are bias corrected based on past performance.
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      Applying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4211468
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    contributor authorBrill, Keith F.
    contributor authorMesinger, Fedor
    date accessioned2017-06-09T16:32:51Z
    date available2017-06-09T16:32:51Z
    date copyright2009/12/01
    date issued2009
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-69763.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4211468
    description abstractBias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit bias sensitivity. The critical performance ratio (CPR) is the minimum fraction of added forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is increased. In the opposite case, the CPR is the maximum fraction of removed forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is decreased. The CPR is derived here for the bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores to quantify bias sensitivity relative to several other measures of performance including conventional threat and equitable threat scores. The CPR for a bias-adjusted equitable threat score may indicate the likelihood of preserving or increasing the conventional equitable threat score if forecasts are bias corrected based on past performance.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleApplying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume24
    journal issue6
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/2009WAF2222272.1
    journal fristpage1748
    journal lastpage1754
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2009:;volume( 024 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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